Emmett Weather

447
FXUS65 KBOI 091536
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
936 AM MDT Thu May 9 2024

.DISCUSSION...Weak northeasterly flow across southwest Idaho
today will produce scattered CU. There is enough weak
instability and moisture for isolated showers and thunderstorms
across the Western Magic Valley and Southern Twin Falls County.
A couple of high-res models this morning are showing showers
across the Boise Mountains and eastern Upper Treasure Valley
though confidence is low at this time. Temperatures are expected
to reach near normal today. No updates needed at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Generally clear, except afternoon cloud build-ups
over south-central Idaho and some mid/high clouds over higher
terrain of central Idaho. Low chance (25%) of light showers at
KTWF/KJER after 21Z. Sfc winds: NW 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt,
except becoming E 15-10kt with gusts to 25kt for KJER/KTWF. Winds at
10k ft MSL: NE 10-25 kt by 09/00Z.

KBOI...VFR. Sfc winds: Variable less than 5kt become WNW 10-15kt
after 18Z.

Weekend Outlook...Mostly clear skies through the weekend with
light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...An upper level
ridge to our northwest combined with a trough to our southeast
will give us NE flow aloft through Saturday. It will also give
most of us mostly clear skies and warmer temperatures. And while
they will also be warming up, the western Magic Valley and points
south will see a chance of showers and a slight chance of weak
thunderstorms this afternoon into the early evening. Friday will be
dry with temperatures around 5 degrees above normal. Late Saturday,
as the ridge axis weakens and moves overhead, we will have light NW
winds aloft. Temperatures will rise to around 10 degrees above
normal by Saturday.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...After our upper flow
shifts to out of the NW late Saturday, a weak trough will move
over the region late Sunday night or Monday. This should bring
increased clouds, but most likely little to no precipitation.
Ensembles indicate this will likely be followed by a return to
NW flow aloft as a new ridge builds along the coast. The latest
GFS is an outlier with its depiction of a trough moving into the
area next Thursday. For now, this solution has been noted but
not included in the forecast. Temps in the long term will be
above normal, with Sunday the most likely to be the warmest at
10-15 degrees above normal. There is high chance (70-99%) of
temps above 80 degrees from Ada County northwest through the
lower Treasure Valley Saturday, then a near 100% chance Sunday.
This high chance extends throughout the upper Treasure Valley
and into the western Magic Valley Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION.....MC
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....SP