Emmett Weather

081
FXUS65 KBOI 110913
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
313 AM MDT Fri Oct 11 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Yesterday`s weak
cold front dissipated over our CWA but models show the remnants
shifting back northward today under southwest flow aloft. This
should make today sunnier and about 5 degrees warmer than
yesterday. An upper low in the Pacific near 39N/138W is
forecast to move to the southern OR coast Saturday morning then
weaken as it continues east across southern OR Saturday and
into northern NV Sunday. The low will spread middle and high
clouds across our CWA late tonight through Saturday, with a 20
percent chance of showers in southern Harney County Saturday
afternoon before the low turns south. Temperatures will continue
5 to 10 degrees above normal through the weekend. Winds will
stay light diurnal through Sunday night, with local afternoon
gusts to 20 mph over higher terrain in the south.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...It will remain warm and
dry Monday and Tuesday as our area remains under southwesterly
flow aloft ahead of an upper level trough. Lower valley highs
will be in the upper 70s to around 80, or 10 to 15 degrees above
normal. Wednesday will be a transition day as the upper level
trough moves inland. A cold front will push through the area,
but timing is uncertain and will be the difference between highs
10-20 degrees cooler versus similar temperatures to Tuesday.
The current forecast favors the cold front arriving earlier in
the day. Precipitation chances will increase as the trough and
cold front move inland, with a 50-80% chance of precipitation
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, highest in the
mountains. There is also a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms along
the front, which would be more favored with a frontal passage
later in the day. As colder air arrives with the trough axis,
snow levels will fall to around 5000-6000 ft MSL by Thursday
morning. A 30-60% chance of precipitation will continue into
Thursday, so light snow accumulations may fall on mountain
peaks. Precipitation chances will decrease further on Friday as
the trough moves east. Confidence is high that temperatures will
be much cooler Thursday and Friday, and valley highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees. Breezy to windy conditions are
expected Wednesday through Friday as the system pushes through.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. Broken mid/high clouds. Reduced visibility in
smoke near wildfires. Surface winds: Variable less than 10 kt.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Broken high clouds. Surface winds: SE around 5 kt,
becoming NW 4-7 kt this afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. Broken mid/high clouds, clearing Sunday.
Isolated virga or light showers on Saturday. Reduced visibility
in smoke near wildfires. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt on
Saturday, becoming variable 10 kt or less on Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST