Emmett Weather

753
FXUS65 KBOI 150009
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
609 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chance of showers and thunderstorms mostly over higher terrain
  through next weekend.

- Hot temperatures into the upcoming weekend with valley highs
  around 100 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/...
Issued 240 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
An upper shortwave trough and accompanying deep moisture (+1.2"
PW content) that brought showers to much of the area today will
exit the area by this evening. Temperatures will be quick to
heat up through this evening as skies clear behind this
feature. Southeast Oregon and higher terrain south of the Snake
Plain will see isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms to
develop through sunset. While the air mass will be trending
drier, heavy rain and gusty outflow winds to 40 mph remain a
possibility.

Wednesday starts out with less cloud cover and ends with hotter
temperatures than today. Though drier, the air mass will retain
enough moisture to support isolated afternoon shower/storm
development over higher terrain. Similar to this afternoon the
focus of thunderstorm initiation will be SE Oregon and areas
along the ID/NV border. Locally gusty outflow winds to 45 mph
will accompany the stronger storms.

Thursday will see a gradual westward expansion of the central
US upper high (aka the heat dome). This will bring a return to
100 degree heat across lower elevations while afternoon
instability will support another round of thunderstorms. The
better environment for development is over SW Idaho on Thursday
as drier air could inhibit initiation across SE Oregon. The
added heat/instability could be enough to sustain activity as
it moves off higher terrain and into the valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
Issued 240 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
Hot, southerly flow remains over the region through the long
term. Max temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal during
this period, warm enough for triple digits multiple days in a
row in the Snake Plain and lower elevations. Moderate to Major
Heat Risk will affect individuals sensitive to heat during these
days, especially if morning low temperatures trend warmer. At
the same time, a consistent moisture tap keeps
shower/thunderstorm chances elevated in Central Idaho and South-
central Idaho. Storms will form in the afternoon/evening each
day through Sunday. Monday and Tuesday next week may continue
this hot and stormy pattern, although a potential pattern shift
is leading to some uncertainty in where the best storm
environment moves.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday through Thursday/...
Issued 557 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR with isolated showers/thunderstorms this evening, mainly
over southeast OR and the ID-NV border. Thunderstorms could
produce gusty outflow winds up to 35 kt and heavy rainfall.
Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt from KBOI to
KJER. Storms could produce wind gusts to 25-35 kt. Winds
generally lowering down to NW or variable 5-12 kt tonight after
sunset. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 5-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with few to scattered mid-high clouds. 5% chance of
showers/thunderstorms moving in vicinity this evening. Surface
winds: NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt possible this evening,
lowering to variable under 6 kt late tonight after Wed/06Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.

OR...None.

&&

$$

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AVIATION.....JY
SHORT TERM...DG
LONG TERM....JM