Emmett Weather

934
FXUS65 KBOI 290844
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
244 AM MDT Wed Oct 29 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Ridging is generally
the name of the game through the short-term. However, being
under the periphery of the ridge, we will be in position to have
various shortwaves pass overhead. Current water-vapor satellite
shows the first of the aforementioned shortwaves approaching
central Oregon (as of writing this). For most of our area, this
will bring nothing more than increased cloud cover, although far
northern Baker and Valley counties may see some sprinkles and
mountain flurries this morning. Breezy easterly/southeasterly
winds will also persist this morning ahead of the shortwave,
before calming down and becoming northwesterly after the trough
passes. The ridge will rebound after this shortwave passes
keeping Thursday and Friday dry. Although another weak
shortwave passage Thursday afternoon will bring another period
of increased cloud cover. Friday afternoon/evening, a deepening
Gulf of Alaska trough will work to shove the ridge axis east of
our area putting us under zonal flow aloft. Increased moisture
advection in this flow will lead to mostly cloudy skies Friday
evening. Temperatures will remain within a few degrees of normal
through the period (leaning just a hair below).


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...An upper level ridge of
high pressure overhead will weaken on Saturday. This will allow
Pacific moisture within southwest flow aloft to move inland over the
top of the ridge, resulting in a 20-60% chance of showers across the
northern mountains Saturday into early Sunday. Precipitation chances
will be less than 20% from the Snake Basin south to the Nevada
border. Rain will be the predominant precipitation type as mild air
accompanying the southwesterly flow will push snow levels to 9-10kft
MSL for most of the event. Highs Saturday will be around 10 degrees
above normal. Precipitation chances will decrease late Sunday into
Monday as the ridge rebuilds. Uncertainty increases early next week
as an upper level trough off the PacNW coast tries to move onshore
and displace the ridge. This brings 10-30% chance of showers on
Tuesday, increasing to a 30-60% chance on Wednesday as ensembles
come into better agreement about the trough moving inland. Southwest
flow will keep temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Pockets of mountain obscuration in NE Oregon
and w-central Idaho mtns from low ceilings and isolated showers this
morning. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR in showers. Snow levels in area
of showers: 4500-6000 feet MSL. Surface winds: generally NE-SE 5-15
kt with localized gusts to 25 kt this morning, becoming W-NW 5-15 kt
this afternoon. Low level wind shear early this morning in Lower
Treasure Valley including KONO. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 20-30
kt, becoming NW 10-20 kt by 00z/Thu.

KBOI...VFR under mid to high clouds. Surface winds SE 5-12 kt, then
light/variable after sunrise, then NW 5-10 kt this afternoon.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST