Emmett Weather

000
FXUS65 KBOI 251614
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1014 AM MDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.DISCUSSION...Radar is picking up isolated showers this morning
behind last night`s frontal passage. Daytime heating and
increasing instability will expand shower coverage this
afternoon across higher terrain. A more organized line of
showers and possible thunderstorms will take shape over eastern
Oregon late this afternoon in advance of an upper trough. Gusty
winds to 40 mph will accompany the line as it crosses SE Oregon
and into SW Idaho early tonight. Have added a slight chance of
thunderstorms to SE Oregon zones for this afternoon/evening.

&&

.AVIATION...Generally VFR this morning, then areas of MVFR
moving into eastern Oregon this afternoon as showers/weak
thunderstorms develop. This area will move into southwest Idaho
this evening. Surface winds: W to NW 5-15 kt. Gusts to 30 kt in
stronger showers, and along/just behind the cold front tonight.
Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR under mid to high level clouds today. Surface winds:
NW 5-15 kt, with gusts near 20 kt this afternoon. A cold front
will arrive this evening with light rain showers along and
behind the front. The front will also lower ceilings to
5000-7000 ft AGL and bring brief wind gusts to 30 kt.
Thunderstorm chances less than 15% tonight.

Weekend Outlook...Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue into Friday, with the highest
coverage in the mountains. Periods of MVFR conditions and
mountain obscuration in showers. Snow levels 5500-6500 ft MSL.
Scattered showers will continue into Saturday and Sunday over
the mountains, with mostly dry conditions and decreasing clouds
elsewhere. Surface winds generally W-NW 10-25 kt, with the
strongest winds Friday night and Saturday from KMUO east through
the Magic Valley where gusts up to 40 kt will develop.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday night...A weak cold front
continues to push southeastward this morning. Isolated showers
continue ahead of the front near the Nevada border, but the
drier/stable air behind the front will end the showers by
sunrise. The dry conditions will be short-lived as a moist
upper trough enters the Pacific Northwest. A cold front is
expected to move through SE Oregon later this afternoon and SW
Idaho tonight, accompanied by showers. Most areas have a decent
chance of receiving measurable rainfall, with the greatest
chances (>60 percent) in the higher elevations. The axis of the
trough reaches our area on Friday for more showers, along with a
slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Snow levels lower to
around 6000 feet with some accumulations expected on the higher
mountains. Total snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are expected
on the Steens Mountain in Harney County and in central Idaho
above 6500 feet from Friday morning through Friday night. Most
areas will experience breezy conditions on Friday, approaching
advisory levels in s-central Idaho in the afternoon. Drier
conditions arrive from the west and reach SE Oregon on Saturday,
while residual moisture keeps a chance (30-50 percent) of
showers in the higher elevations of SW Idaho. The low pressure
to the east and high pressure to the west will enhance the
gradient for widespread windy conditions, especially in southern
Idaho east of Boise where a Wind Advisory may be warranted.
Temperatures will be a few degrees above normal today and near
normal Friday and Saturday.

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...An upper level trough
will move into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday and through our
area on Monday. The center of the trough is expected to remain
to our north, bringing a 30-60% chance of showers to the central
ID mountains with a 20% chance or less elsewhere. Winds will
remain breezy Sunday and strengthen on Monday as the trough
moves to our east. Temperatures will be near normal both days.
Models are in better agreement about the pattern Tuesday and
Wednesday, with a deep upper low stalling off the coast and an
upper level ridge amplifying over the Plains. Temperatures are
forecast to rise to around 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday
under southwesterly flow aloft. Mostly dry conditions are also
expected along with lighter winds. Forecast confidence decreases
on Thursday as the low moves inland, but this should bring
cooler temperatures and an increasing chance of precipitation to
the area.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....SP
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....ST