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Forecast Discussion for Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 040254

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
854 PM MDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.DISCUSSION...Showers are ending and the skies are starting to
clear across SE Oregon and SW Idaho this evening. The rainfall
earlier today moistened up the lower levels, and combined with
clearing skies, light winds, and cooling temps, patchy fog is
expected in the valleys late tonight through Wednesday morning.
A northwest flow aloft will bring dry conditions and mostly
clear skies on Wednesday as a high-amplitude ridge resides off
the coast. Temperatures will be warmer, but still a few degrees
below normal. No updates.


.AVIATION...VFR with decreasing clouds this evening. Clearing
skies will allow for patchy MVFR/IFR fog/stratus to form in the
valleys after 06Z. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt becoming variable
less than 10 kt after 06Z. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: Northwest
10-20 kt.


SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Main forecast
concern will be fog development tonight through Wednesday
morning. Isolated showers will continue this afternoon across
south- central Idaho. These showers will diminish by sunset as
the shortwave exits the region. Skies will clear with light
diurnal winds tonight. Recent rainfall has left plenty of
moisture for fog/stratus development late this evening. The
highest probability of fog is shown near Jerome, Burns and
McCall. Stratus and fog also looks to develop along the
foothills of the Boise Mountains. However, fog is possible
across the Western Snake River Plain and sheltered mountains
valleys Wednesday morning which could be an issue for the
morning commute. A warming and drying trend begins on Wednesday
through Thursday as a high amplitude ridge moves over the coast
of the Pacific Northwest. This will return to normal by

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Upper level ridge over
the Pacific Northwest on Friday will move across the area on
Saturday. The ridge will slowly move eastward but remain over
the Northern Rockies placing the area under southwest flow
through Monday for warm and dry conditions. Moisture begins to
increase Monday afternoon as the next upper level trough
approaches from the west. There is a 10-30% chance of showers
mainly west and north Monday afternoon which spreads over the
region late Monday night through Tuesday. Temperatures will
warm up Friday through Sunday, reaching around 10 degrees above
normal Sunday. Latest guidance is showing around 61% chance of
temperatures reaching at least 80 degrees on Sunday in Boise.
Monday will be a few degrees cooler then a return to near-
normal Tuesday due to increasing cloud cover and the previously-
mentioned chance of showers with the trough passage.






Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Boise, ID (BOI) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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